Bayesian Statistics, Independent Events, Collective Conscious

            Bayesian statistics asks the question, given what I observed, what is the probability of that thing happening? For example, if a person has never been in a car crash, that person might think that it’s impossible that they’ll ever be in a car crash, and so they underestimate the probability of being in a car crash. On the other hand, if someone has been in a car crash, maybe they’re really worried about being in car crashes and overestimate the probability.

            Emile Durkheim described the idea of a society’s collective conscious. I consider it to be the sum total of a society’s memories and values. Consider the Glass-Steagall Act. It was put in place in response to the Great Depression to prevent normal people’s saving being wiped out by a financial crisis. The Glass-Steagall Act was repealed in 1999, when the Great Depression had left our collective conscious. Very few people who experienced the Great Depression were alive or in politics when the Glass-Steagall Act was repealed. Then ten years later, there’s a financial crisis. There hadn’t been a world-wide financial crisis since the Great Depression, so maybe people thought that a financial crisis was impossible because it had never happened in their lifetimes.

            Consider the probability of a terrorist attack. If you had asked people on September 10th, 2001, what the probability of a terrorist attack was, they might have said that it was unlikely, or maybe even impossible. If you asked people on September 12th, 2001, they might have been in a panic or anxious about a terrorist attack. That was because of September 11th, 2001, their estimation of the probability of a terrorist attack changed.

            An important question about the probability of events is, “Is the probability of these events independent?” For example, using your cellphone while driving and being in a car crash. If you use your cellphone while driving, you’re more likely to be in a car accident, so the events aren’t independent. Consider playing the lottery and a scratch-off gambling game. The probability of winning the lottery and winning a scratch-off game are independent, because they don’t affect each other. Regarding a terrorist attack on 9/11, is that an independent event? Does the terrorist attack on 9/11 indicate that there are more attacks incoming, meaning that the probability of a terrorist attack has increased? Or was it an independent event, meaning that the probability of an attack was the same on September 12th, 2001, as it was on September 10th, 2001, and the only thing that changed was our estimation of the probability.

            If people have never experienced something, they tend to think, “X event could never happen to me,” so they underestimate the probability, until it happens to them, and then they think, “X event is likely,” and then maybe they overestimate the probability.

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